Elementry

I'm one of those odd people who read statistics, even though I think their a load of old cobblers. I guess it's because I have a knack for them - forget psychics, just show me a mess of figures. One of my old school reports - I must have been the grand old age of 9 - says "this lad is either going to be the next Sherlock Holmes, or a Pathologist."

True, dead things don't bother me. At 5 years old I had dissected everything I could get my hands on, and by 15 I was trying to take apart any willing young lady I could get my hands on to see how they worked. Didn't find out then, don't know now.

As the aforementioned Mr. Holmes observed :- "How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?"

My dad often said the same about my mother. Over 40 odd (very odd) years later, how right he was.

Couldn't see myself doing pathology. In the end, did a brief spell as a butcher, so yon teacher was almost right. But man, do I know my meat.

Holmes was a selfish, arrogant smack-head. That didn't appeal to me. So stats it's been.

It was with interest then that I poured over the crime stats for my area. Apparently, in this little leafy corner of our fair city, we have, not in any particular order, above average to high incidences for burglary, same for assaults on the person, zero for murder, above average for attempted murder, zero for rape and sexual assault, car crime, including theft,(average) all categorised according police attendance, and marked on some peculiar map based on political boundaries in colours from yellow (low) pink (average/above average) and bright red (high).

It's true - sort of. But it's a classic case of lies, damn lies and statistics. Criminals are people who have been naughty and have been caught. Everyone else either hasn't been bad, or hasn't been caught yet. This kinda stuff is expressed as incidents per 100 population. That's about every 55 households. My street has about 160 households.

So 'high' might be 2 incidents of any one offence per year. But being local, you know where its at. Shots fired at a home. Uhuh, that's 'im at 49. Him who's house smells funny when you walk past. Car theft? Yup, someone nicked his rather expensive car. He spends some time 'helping police with their enquiries' and 'under protection after hospital treatment'. While he's in there, there's a mysterious fire - during searches police find a cannabis farm. That explains the funny smell and the odd fault on the street light outside. I'm up to five offences?

The other house that had burnt down a couple of years ago - rebuilt, renovated, nice family there now? Same back then. Oh hang on, that was a local smack-head. Call that 10 offences then.

Burglary. Now, no burglar operates in their own area. Why? Because they have to live near their victims. Those victims aren't going to like that. Nor does an illegal cigarette dealer, heroin dealer, car thief or con man.

So if you're ever looking a crime stats for your area, remember, crooks are idiots. If by some mischance they live nearby, they won't for long. But the chances are they don't. The stats are misleading because they imply they are local. The reality is they are targeting your area from the outside. Your area is victim of, not a producer of :)